Understanding Demand Response

One of the important motivating factors for building the Smart Grid is improving Demand Response. This is also related to the goal of reducing peak demand. But why is it important to reduce peak demand? And what does it mean to have ‘Demand Response’?

The fundamental problem with electricity is that we do not have the technology to economically store it. The generating capacity must always match the consumed load. Every time a consumer turns on an additional appliance, he is increasing his demand. To meet that additional demand, the generator must produce more electricity. The electric grid ensures that every time demand fluctuates, the generation capacity is tweaked to match the load and everything runs smoothly. But if everything runs smoothly, then what is the problem? The problem is economics or more simply put: cost.

The economic cost problem is a direct consequence of the technological inability to store electricity. The problem can be summarized as: The marginal cost of electricity production is not constant. What does this mean? Let’s say that you have a plant that is currently generating 100 KW of electricity at a cost of $100.00. If the demand increases to 101 KW, then you need to generate an additional 1 KW of electricity. But generating this 1 KW would cost you significantly more than $1.00.  For illustration, let’s assume it costs you $5.00 to meet the demand of 101 KW. Now if the demand increases to 102 KW, the cost of generating one more unit will increase further. It might cost you $10 to meet the additional one unit. The cost of production increases with increasing demand. (Note: These numbers are only for illustrating the problem of rising marginal cost of electricity production. They are nowhere close to being correct. And the real economic models are also more complex than those depicted here.)

Let’s take a deeper look at why the marginal cost of electricity keeps increasing. In order to deal with fluctuations in demand, the electricity infrastructure supports two kinds of power plants: Baseload plants and Peaker plants. Baseload plants are the general work-horses of electricity generation. They are typically either coal-based, hydro-electric or nuclear energy plants. These plants are designed and built to generate enough energy to meet a pre-defined maximum demand. For examples, a nuclear plant might have a peak capacity of 100 MW. As long as the demand is under the plants peak capacity, the base load plant has the ability to meet the demand. But what happens when demand exceeds the plant’s capacity? If the demand goes beyond the Baseload plant’s capacity, the Peaker plants go into operation and supply the additional energy.

As their name implies, Peaker plants are built to handle peak demand. Since these plants are put in to action at short notices and need to generate power quickly to meet peak demands, they typically use oil and natural gas as their fuel supply. The economics of operating Baseload plants and Peaker plants are vastly different. According to reports, some of these Peaker plants are used for less than hundred hours a year. Imagine building a power plant, maintaining it to run safely and efficiently but running it for only 4 days a year! How expensive is the energy produced from this plant? This is the main reason that the cost per unit of electricity generated from a Peaker plant is substantially higher than those produced at a base load plant.

Now that we have an idea of the increasing marginal cost at the supply side, let’s look at the demand side. The consumer, who is at the demand end, typically pays a fixed rate for his consumption. The consumer is probably not even aware that the additional consumption is costing extra. This creates a situation where the demand is unresponsive to cost. Currently we neither have the ability to communicate this cost increase to the customer nor charge them extra. In short, we have market place that ignores the fundamental demand-supply law of economics. This situation is purely a result of the limitations of our current technology. If the consumer were informed of the additional cost every time he turns up the air conditioning, then the consumer might change his consumption habits.

Let’s take a look at an example of how reducing peak demand can help. Here’s a graph from Dominion Power (my earlier post about it):

Dominion-electricity-usage-tou-plan

Let’s say we managed to spread the demand evenly across time. Then there would be no need to bring the Peaker plants in to operation. Our problem of energy supply should not be dealt with only at the supply side. It is simply too expensive and inefficient to build additional capacity to meet peak demand. Intelligent demand management should be part of any energy solution.

Additional References:

  1.  Ahmad Faruqui, Ryan Hledik, Samuel A. Newell, and Johannes P. Pfeifenberger, The Brattle Group, Inc. “The Power of Five Percent: How Dynamic Pricing Can Save $35 Billion in Electricity Costs
  2. Kathleen Spees, Lester B. Lave, “Demand Response and Electricty Market Efficiency“.
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Dominion’s Smart Pricing Plan

Last week I signed up for Dominion’s smart pricing plan. I haven’t heard about when they will install a smart meter at my house, but I am looking forward to trying this out.

Dominion is implementing a Time of Use (ToU) pricing plan in an attempt to reduce peak demand. As I mentioned before, one of the main goals of the grid modernization plan is to reduce peak demand. Here is a Dominion’s graph about their energy usage. The graph does not show any actual values for usage but it does a pretty good job of showing how usage varies across the time of day.

Dominion-electricity-usage-tou-plan

Image Source: Dominion Customer Letter

Pricing will vary depending not only on the time of day but also on the particular day. Dominion’s plan classifies each day either as a High Price, Medium Price or Low Price day. Here’s their graph showing how the price varies:

Dominion-pricing-matrix

 

Image Source: Dominion Info Guide

Will we reduce waste and consume electricity more efficiently because of these smart meters? It will certainly be interesting to find out.

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Are Smart Meters hazardous to your health?

Many of the latest smart meters have built in 4G LTE technology. This technology allows the smart meters to send the consumption data to the utility’s central database. From the utility’s perspective, this saves cost by eliminating the need to manually read every single meter. It also facilitates real time demand monitoring to help balance load generation. Overall it looks like this technology could help both the consumer and the utilities. However, not everyone seems to think so. In fact some people seem to consider the smart meters a health hazard.

Ever since cell phones started proliferating, we have been hearing concerns about how the phone’s radiation could potentially cook our brains. The same concern seems to have entered the smart meter market. According to IEEE Spectrum, this concern has gotten so bad, that many places in Texas and California have banned smart meters. With regard to cell phones, judging by the growing number of cell phone users, most people seem to have ignored these concerns. We can’t seem to disconnect ourselves from our cell phones.

Whatever be the merits of the radiation concern, it just doesn’t seem to make much sense in the case of smart meters. To begin with, the smart meters are located at a distance out of the home. Second, no one is ever going to walk around with the smart meter anywhere close to their ear/head. The option to opt-out of using smart meters makes even less sense. What would happen if one person opted out of the smart meter but every other house in the neighborhood installs a smart meter? This is quite likely scenario and in such cases, opting out of smart meters does not reduce the radiation impact on the one solitary house. Also, what do you think is the likelihood, that the person who rejects a smart meter owns a cell phone? I would guess it is pretty high.

Every new technology seems to bring forward some amount of resistance to its adoption. I expect this is the same with smart meters. For now, the smart meter community seems to be doing the right thing by educating consumers and providing opt-out programs. Over time, this will just fade away. The benefits simply far outweigh the risks.

 

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Global Vision for the Smart Grid: Will the Grid be the same everywhere?

Here in the US, the NIST SGIP has been coordinating the various Smart Grid stakeholders to help develop standards for an interoperable Smart Grid. Similar efforts have started in other countries. Last month, the Korean Smart Grid Task Force officially signed up to partner with the SGIP on this issue.Looking at all these collaboration efforts, one could conclude that all the countries have the same vision for the Grid.

In a recent IEEE newsletter, Rahul Tongia wrote about the challenges in modernizing the grid in India. The main difference between the problems of the Grid in countries like the USA and India is one of production capacity. In other words, it is the gap between the supply and demand of electricity. Here in the USA, when demand peaks, there is sufficient capacity to generate the additional needs but it costs too much and strains the grid. One of the goals of the Smart Grid is to reduce Peak Load and spread the load across time. Over in India, there is insufficient generating capacity and simply shifting the demand across time might not be all that useful. In such situations, what is the best way to invest your resources? Does it make sense to worry about whether your refrigerator should connect to your smart phone or to the smart meter? Rahul has a few good suggestions on what design philosophy to adopt in India: frugal innovation, modular solutions, scalable functionality and short learning curves. The suggestion that stood out for me was the ‘frugal innovation concept’. Why shouldn’t this concept be adopted here in the USA and around the world?

Every country will have its unique problems in trying to modernize their grids. Collaboration among technical agencies will help examine these problems from different aspects. The IEEE is definitely helping this cause. A quick search on IEEE’s database shows that many of the recent Smart Grid related papers have come from outside the USA. It will be interesting to see how the new Grid will evolve around the world over the next decade.

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Consumer Electronics versus Utilities

Most of the work that will go into transforming the current Electric Grid in to the Smart Grid will remain hidden from the average consumer. Even today people pay attention to their utility provider only when there is a service disruption or when it is time to pay the bill. There is, though, one part of the Smart Grid that will touch every consumer: the Home Automation Network. The key question is who will control this network?

The Utilities have taken the first step in this process. They are building their technology eco-system around the Smart Meter. According to their vision, the Smart Meter will be the gateway to controlling the home’s energy usage. However, developing technologies for the average consumer has never been the Utilities’ strong suit. This area has traditionally been the domain of Consumer Electronic companies. Back in May 2011, Google announced the launch of its Android @Home initiative. Although very little is known about this program, it can safely be assumed that it involves controlling all your home electronics through the Android platform. Although Apple and Microsoft have not spoken up about this, they very likely are looking in to this area.

My personal opinion is that the utilities have very little chance of winning this battle. The Utility Business model is simply not suited for the fast changing consumer electronics market. At the same time consumer electronic companies are not known for developing stable technologies that lend themselves to management by Utilities. Geoffrey Moore talked about this difference in greater detail. Ultimately the Home Automation space will have to develop with some sort of collaboration between the two industries. 

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An Epiphany about Reading Books and Reading about Books

I have noticed that I have been reading more about books than the books themselves. In many ways, this trend was bound to happen. There are more books out there than any one human can read in a lifetime. And, plenty of new books are released every day. If one wishes to keep abreast of the latest in many fields, the best one can do is read good book reviews. And add to that all the other stuff that gets created every day: movies, songs, TV shows, etc. There just isn’t enough time in a lifetime to cover everything. A recent blog on NPR covered this issue. One of the insights in that article was that it is not really a sad thing that we cannot read everything. Here’s a quote:

It’s sad, but it’s also … great, really. Imagine if you’d seen everything good, or if you knew about everything good. Imagine if you really got to all the recordings and books and movies you’re “supposed to see.” Imagine you got through everybody’s list, until everything you hadn’t read didn’t really need reading. That would imply that all the cultural value the world has managed to produce since a glob of primordial ooze first picked up a violin is so tiny and insignificant that a single human being can gobble all of it in one lifetime. That would make us failures, I think.

Last week I read Steven Blank’s “The Four Steps to the Epiphany” and I had another epiphany quite different from that covered by the book. I realized how much is lost in simply reading about a book instead of actually reading the book. Blank’s book has received plenty of press and most people in the Tech industry are familiar with it. Reading the book, I could not help wonder how much the book would have helped me if only I had bothered to read it. Reading about a book might give you the false impression that you understood everything about it. My take away: Do not ignore the best books in your field. This means picking what you want to focus on and making sure you cover the best works. There is a reason why some books get universal acclaim. Read them first hand and find out why.

Coming back to Blank’s book, Amazon and elsewhere already have plenty of details about the book. It does not make much sense to recap them here. From my Engineering/Product Management perspective, here are a few must remember points:

  • Start your Customer Development process in parallel with your Product Development process.
  • Reduce risk and always verify and validate all your hypothesis and assumptions regarding your product, its potential customers, the operating plan, and the marketing plan.
  • As important as it is to develop a good product, it is even more important to develop a good product that customers will pay for. It is essential to keep in mind the market that the company is targeting.

And yes, reading this blog post does not mean you that you learnt everything about the “The Four Steps to the Epiphany”.

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The Smart Phone Market and the Car Market

Today a ‘leak’ from Nokia turned up on the Web and showed details of Nokia’s first Windows phone. Judging by the professional quality of the video, it hardly feels like a leak. As so many others have guessed, the ‘leak’ was most likely the work of Nokia’s PR department. Apart from that, the phone (code named Sea Gate) looks quite impressive. I personally would love to try out the Office products on one of these phones. Many of the early users of Windows Phone 7 have reported good things about it. Although many people seem to write off the Windows-Nokia partnership, I think that Windows Phone will gain a decent share of the smart phone market.

The car market is flooded with many manufacturers and hundreds of models. One of the reasons for this is quite simple: people like choice and are attracted to different car models. Will the smart phone market also end up like the car market? In the US, cell phone carriers typically have a two year contract with every new phone purchase. And people tend to change their phones after that period. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest that people will try out different platforms while renewing their contract. To me this seems to suggest that there might be plenty of room for more than two dominant platforms.

Nokia-Microsoft might not get more than one chance at staking a claim on this market. It all depends on Nokia’s first Windows Phone 7 product.

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The Signal Processing Industry and the Smart Grid

Since the term Smart Grid encompasses everything from Power Generation to consumer usage at home and offices, the work on developing the Smart Grid affects a whole range of industries. A recent article in the IEEE Signal Processing Magazine looked at how the developments in the Smart Grid arena were affecting companies traditionally working on signal processing applications.

[I really wish the IEEE and ACM would open up their databases to the general public. I don’t see the point of hiding all the papers behind a pay-wall.  Well, this is a topic for another post some other day. For now, here’s the citation to the article: R. Schneiderman, “Smart Grid Represents a Potentially Huge Market for the Electronics Industry”, IEEE Signal Processing Magazine, Sept. 2010, Volume: 27 Issue: 5, page(s): 8 – 15.]

Signal processing gets used in all communciation technologies. It is not surprising that with the growth in all the Smart Grid communication technologies, the signal processing industry will also see a big gain. However, there are two other unlikely areas that will contribute to the growth of this industry: First, renewable sources such as Wind Mills will require sophisticated controls and signal processing.  As expected, Solar will not have as many requirements as Wind because of fewer moving parts in the generation equipment. Second, substation monitoring and power quality control will use a lot of signal processing power.

Back in communication arena, it is essentially a battle of wireless standards. This battle is mainly concentrated at the home area network since that is where customers will experience the benefits of the Smart Grid. Standards such as Bluetooth, Zigbee and other variants are duking it out. There are two other technologies in the Smart Grid world that do not get enough attention: Power Line Communications (PLC) and DC power transmissions. The HomeGrid Forum is actively promoting power line communications. They have much better market penetration in Europe than in the US. With all the push towards a wireless Home Area Networking, I am skeptical about its adoption in the US. Another un-scientific indication of decline: the HomeGrid Forum’s blog has not been updated since December 2010. However, chip manufacturers such as Intel and TI have invested in this technology. TI has a line of MCUs targetting PLC.

DC power transmissions on the other hand is not trying to replace any existing technologies. With the introduction of various distributed energy sources, DC transmission might make better sense in certain situations. For example, off-shore wind generation stations are expected to use DC transmission.

Overall, the plans of chip manufacturers such as TI, Analog Devices and others in the signal processing area will give a good indication of the Smart Grids progress.

 

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Will the Smart Grid Cross the Chasm?

The Smart Grid concept has been around for a few years now. There have been a bunch of pilot projects, but the typical consumer has largely been unaffected by work in this area. There have been grumblings all along and even a few high profile naysayers as well: Vinod Khosla publicly ridiculed many of the technologies as ‘toys’ in a recent key note speech. This debate brings to mind Geoffrey Moore’s ‘Crossing the Chasm’ model and raises the question of whether the Smart Grid will ever cross the chasm?

Geoffrey Moore explained the Technology Adoption Life Cycle (TALC) in his classic ‘Crossing the Chasm’. Since the publication of the book, the terms have entered into every day vocabulary for people in the tech industry. The TALC describes how any new technology is adopted by people. Not everyone jumps up immediately to try out new technologies. The people who are at the forefront of the tech world developing new products are the ‘Innovators’. The ones who are eager to try out new technologies are the ‘Early Adopters’. The ‘Early Majority’ are the pragmatists who buy products only after their value is well established. The ‘Late Majority’ and the ‘Laggards’ are the ones who are never keen to try anything new. As Moore explained, new technologies are easy to penetrate the small group of Innovators and Early Adopters. For a technology to become really successful, it has to reach the Early Majority. However, the transition from the Early Adopters to Early Majority is not smooth and a there is gap, the Chasm, that should be crossed. The Smart Grid industry is currently in a stage where it has reached only a few early adopters. All the debates about whether the Smart Grid will become a reality centers around the question of whether it becomes adopted by the pragmatic users.

Technology-adoption-lifecycle

Image Source: Wikimedia Commons

Geoffrey Moore gave a talk at Connectivity Week back in May where he examined this question about what it would take for the Smart Grid to cross the chasm. The basic challenge is that the Smart Grid is trying to simultaneously alter industries that have fundamentally different business models. On the one side, we have utilities that operate highly complex systems in maintenance mode for very long durations. And on the other side, we have the consumer market that is driven by volume sales and rapid changes in technologies. In order to get the Smart Grid industry unstuck, Moore raises four questions: Are we ready with the technology? Do we have a target problem? Do we know who the key players are? And do we have the right policies? The key to success will be to find answers to these questions.

In terms of available technologies, there have been a number of successful pilot projects. With regard to the communication technologies, I think the industry is battling over standards. There are hardly any unsolved problems and the fight is on to see which technology becomes the dominant standard. The key players and the battle for polices are problems and I will address these in future posts. I think that the biggest problem is Moore’s second question: What is the broken mission critical process that is crying out for a solution? Let’s analyze this question with regard to the Smart Grid’s vision of a fully automated home, with dynamic pricing to reduce energy consumption. From the consumer’s perspective, at this stage there is really no broken process that needs to be fixed. Of course there will be many benefits from interconnected devices, but no one is crying out for a solution that will hook up their water heater to their iPads. At the moment the only drive for this solution comes from a generally agreed upon need for energy conservation and efficiency. For people in the USA, the cost savings from dynamic pricing don’t seem very compelling right now. It is hard to sell a new technology solution unless it is possible to demonstrate significant benefits. Unless the economic equation changes it is hard to see how this vision will be realized. Having said that, it is also crucial to remember that things in the consumer industry tend to move at very different speeds and tipping points are hard to predict. Perhaps the ‘target problem’ will change from ‘why should I hook up my heater to my tablet?’ to ‘What other cool stuff can I do with my tablet?’. And that is where initiatives such as Google’s Android @Home have the power to make a difference.

Moore has plenty of other insights and you can watch the entire talk here on YouTube.

 

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Smart Grid Videos

Following up on the introductory post on the Smart Grid, I wanted to assemble a group of videos that would serve as a good introduction to the Smart Grid. It turns out that there is already a very good collection out there: The 10 Smart Grid Videos Worth Watching.

Here a couple of thought after viewing those videos:

  1. Siemens is the only one who uses the plural ‘Smart Grids’. Their vision is that of numerous small grids that are interconnected and work to improve the efficiency of the entire electricity infrastructure. It was surprising the Siemens was prominently pushing the vision of driverless cars.
  2. The GE video introduced me to the concept of ‘brownout’. Most people are familiar with the term ‘blackout’ but I was surprised that I had never come across ‘brownout’ before watching this video.
  3. As expected CISCO is all about networking. CISCO’s video was pushing their familiar pitch for standardizing over IP protocols for the entire grid. According to this video, there are over 360 proprietary protocols used in the electric industry. That number does not surprise me. The fight over protocol standardization will be the most interesting political fights to watch in the development of the Smart Grid.
  4. We have all heard about the upcoming glut of all electric cars. While it is still anyone’s guess as to whether they become a success, there is an interesting dual use for these cars that many people might not be aware of. The vision is to have cars serve as back-up storage of electricity and in times of high demand, the cars would supply the energy to the grid. The cars would not only consume but also contribute to the grid. Both the Siemens video and CISCO video highlight this feature.
  5. The EPRI has a video explaining the benefits of a smart grid control center ( a ‘virtual power plant’) that would be able to not only control the main sub-station but also control customer’s devices. This vision is what is both exciting and scary about the Smart Grid. From a privacy perspective, would consumers want a Big Brother automatically turning their devices on and off? Would it be better than a complete black-out? What about the security implications? If the power company can get in your home network and manipulate your appliances, what guarantees can we have that we can keep the hackers out?
  6. While all the above videos are mostly marketing videos showing their respective company’s vision of the Smart Grid, American Electric Power (AEP) has a video of an actual pilot project.This project was conducted with GE smart meters, Silver Spring’s network and AEP as the utility company.
  7. For an international perspective, the Korean Electric Power company’s video is a good introduction. One surprising fact is that Korea seems to have a lot more Tidal power generation projects than US or Europe.
  8. Watch the Altair Nano video to get a good overview of micro-grids and the importance of storage technologies for micro-grid.

After watching all these videos, you should have a good overview of the vision for the Smart Grid.

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